For decades, Nigeria has significantly relied on oil as its major source of revenue generation. This heavy reliance on crude oil exports has shaped the nation’s fiscal structure, foreign exchange inflows, and budgetary planning. However, in recent years, Nigeria has been making considerable strides in expanding its non-oil export base.
This development is set to transform Nigeria’s economic landscape by diversifying revenue sources and breaking its reliance on unpredictable oil prices. The shift is no longer a projection; it is already unfolding. In the first half of 2025, Nigeria’s non-oil exports reached $3.225 billion, a significant rise from the $2.696 billion recorded during the same period in 2024. According to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), this represents a 19.59 percent increase. For a country whose economy has long been tied to the fortunes of crude oil, such growth signals progress towards building a more balanced and sustainable export portfolio.
Several factors are responsible for this improved performance. Higher global demand for Nigerian agricultural and mineral commodities, such as cocoa, sesame seeds, cashew nuts, and aluminium; has created fresh market opportunities. Expanded market access and tariff relief under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) have also enhanced Nigeria’s competitiveness across African markets.
Nonye Ayeni, the Executive Director of NEPC, highlighted the progress by adding that the volume of goods shipped abroad rose from 3.83 million metric tonnes in the first half of 2024 to 4.04 million metric tonnes in the same period of 2025. This growth, she explained, was driven by strong global demand from emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Vietnam, and other African countries.
The director said that non-oil products exported in the first half of 2025 were valued at $3.225bn, and it shows an increase of 19.59 per cent as against the sum of $2.696bn recorded for the first half of the year 2024.
The development was equally visible in the first quarter of 2025. During this period, Nigeria exported non-oil products worth $1.791 billion, a 24.75 percent increase over the $1.436 billion posted in Q1 2024. Export volumes rose from 1.937 million metric tonnes in Q1 2024 to 2.416 million metric tonnes in Q1 2025, suggesting an impressive 24.3 percent increase.
According to NEPC, Nigeria also expanded its trade footprint within Africa. In the first half of 2025, the country exported 663 million metric tonnes of goods to 11 ECOWAS member states. Also, exports to 21 other African countries outside ECOWAS reached 488 million metric tonnes, valued at $83.54 million.
Beyond Africa, the Netherlands, the United States, and India emerged as the top three destinations for Nigerian non-oil exports in H1 2025, accounting for 18.64 percent, 8.42 percent, and 8.36 percent of total export value, respectively.
Despite these encouraging figures, oil continues to dominate Nigeria’s export and revenue profile. As of 2023, crude oil accounted for about 80 percent of the country’s revenue and foreign exchange earnings. Crude oil export revenue in that year reached ₦29 trillion, representing a 37 percent increase compared to ₦21.1 trillion in 2022.
However, when examining the broader economy, the oil sector’s contribution to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains relatively small. In Q4 2023, the oil sector contributed just 4.7 percent to GDP, while the non-oil sector contributed a substantial 95 percent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the oil sector recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 12.11 percent in Q4 2023. This is a sharp increase of 25.50 percentage points compared to the corresponding quarter in 2022. Non-oil sectors such as agriculture, trade, telecommunications, and real estate continue to be the major drivers of GDP growth. It reinforces the argument that Nigeria’s economic sustainability hinges on further expanding and strengthening these sectors.
The volatility of global oil prices, combined with shifting energy policies in developed economies toward renewable energy, means that oil revenue will face increasing risks in the years ahead. This makes the ongoing growth in non-oil exports an important part of Nigeria’s economic future.
While recent gains are promising, sustaining the development will require addressing several challenges. Exporters continue to face infrastructure deficits, particularly in transportation and logistics, which raise the cost of moving goods to ports. Port congestion, delays in customs clearance, and limited access to affordable financing remain significant bottlenecks.
Also, more work is needed to promote value addition rather than raw commodity exports.
For instance, a ton of raw cocoa beans earns Nigeria about $2,500. The same ton, processed into chocolate, fetches nearly 10 times that. Diversification without value addition is simply trading one dependency for another.
Nigeria’s export story is at a crossroads. The numbers show some progress, but that is not where we want it to end. Without bold investment in infrastructure and aggressive value addition, the gains of 2025 will remain a footnote rather than a foundation.
Shereefdeen Ahmad is a Free Trade Fellow at Ominira Initiative and a journalist with The Liberalist.
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